### README for Bowen, Goldfien, and Graham (2021),
### "Public Opinion and Nuclear Use: Evidence from
### Factoral Experiments," forthcoming in the
### Journal of Politics.

### This file describes the outlines information on
### data, variables, results, and analysis code for replication
### purposes. Please contact Tyler Bowen (tbowen8@jh.edu) or Michael Goldfien
### (michael.goldfien@yale.edu) with any questions. 

##################################
### LIST OF FILES              ###
##################################

Original data:
BGG_mainstudy_choiceExperiment.csv: conjoint data, main study.
BGG_mainstudy_surveyExperiment.csv: vignette experiment, main study.
BGG_pilot_conjoint_diffs_clean.csv: conjoint data, pilot study.
BGG_pilotexper.csv: vignette experiment, pilot study.

Replication data:
psv.csv: Replication data for Press, Sagan, & Valentino (2013)
abp.csv: Replication data for Aronow, Baron, & Pinson (2020)

Pre-calculated results:
parametric_results_restricted.csv: discrete choice model for restricted choice experiment
parametric_results.csv: discrete choice model for unrestricted choice experiment
in 

Scripts: 
ReplicationScript_BGG_12-14-21.R produces all analysis.

#################################
### REPLICATION INSTRUCTIONS  ###
#################################

All analysis was conducted in R.

1) If necessary, download and install R and RStudio. 
2) Load all files into a directory on your computer. Change line 13 in the replication script to match this directory's path.
3) Install the packages listed on lines 9-20
4) Run the script to produce the output listed below.

#################################
### LIST OF TABLES & FIGURES  ###
#################################

Results for Table 1 in attentive_reg.tex and Table1.tiff

Results shown in Figure 1 in side_by_side_two2.pdf and Fig1.tiff

Results for Table 2 in tab_restricted_choice.txt and Table2_BGG.tiff

Results for Table C.1 (means in Figure 1) in tab_fig3_numeric.txt and Table C.1.tiff

Results for Table C.2 (controlling for survey experiment treatment status)
in tab_restricted_choice_appendix.txt and TableC.2.tiff

Results for Table C.3 (Interaction between parameters and survey treatment status)
in tab_restricted_choice_appendix_interact.txt and TableC.3.tiff

Results for Figure D.1 (Main Study Group Means for Figure 1) in s2_attentive.pdf
and FigD.1.tiff

Results for Figure D.2 (Attentiveness Robustness Chart) in ribbon_panel.pdf
and FigD.2.tiff

Results for Figure D.3 (Pilot Study Group Means by Attentiveness) in s1_attentive.pdf
and FigD.3.tiff

Results for Figure D.4 (Meta-analysis) in surveyExper_vs_others.pdf and 
FigD.4.tiff

Results for Figure D.5 (Restricted choice experiment means) in restricted_means.pdf
and FigD.5.tiff

Results for Table D.1 (Estimates in Figure D.5 with numbers) in study2_restricted_means.txt
and TableD.1_BGG.tiff

Results for Figure D.6 (Pilot Study AMCE) in Study1_amceonly.png and
FigD.6.tiff

Results for Figure D.7 (Main Study AMCE) in amce.pdf and FigD.7.tiff

Results for Table E.1 (Parameter Estimates) in tab_model_s1.txt, tab_model_s2.txt,
tab_model_s1_restrict.txt, and tab_model_s2_restrict.txt

Results for Figure E.1 (Model predictions for conjoint) in appendix_modelPred_conjoint.pdf
and FigE.1.tiff

##############################
### LIST OF VARIABLES      ###
##############################

### Main Study Conjoint Data

id = respondent id

choiceNum = the number of the strike pair presented to them, each respondent saw 
12 strike pairs

nukeAdv = in the realistic scenarios (choices 1-6), records the military advantages
of the nuclear strike (greater chance of success, reduced military casualties, both, or neither)

numDisadv = in the realistic scenarios (choices 1-6), the number of disadvantages for 
the nuclear strike (between 0 and 3)

s1_strike = strike type of the first strike option presented in the choice (nuclear or conventional)

s2_strike = strike type of the second strike option presented in the choice (nuclear or conventional)

adv_strike = differene in strike type between strikes 1 and 2 
(-1 = strike 1 is nuclear, 0 = both are same type, 1 = strike 2 is nuclear)

s1_chance = the percent chance that the first strike will destroy the target (90 percent or 70 percent)

s2_chance = the percent chance that the second strike will destroy the target (90 percent or 70 percent)

adv_chance = indicator of whether the first strike option has an advantage in terms of the chance of success 
(1 = advantage,0 = no advantage, or -1 = disadvantage)

s1_mil = the level of military casualties that come with the first strike option (high, low, or none)

s2_mil = the level of military casualties that come with the second strike option (high, low, or none)

adv_mil = indicator of whether the first strike option has an advantage in military casualties 
(1= advantage, 0 = no advantage, or -1 = disadvantage)

s1_ally = how many allies are said to approve the first strike option (most or few)

s2_ally = how many allies are said to approve the second strike option (most or few)

adv_ally = indicator of whether the first strike option has an advantage in allied approval
(1 = advantage, 0 = no advantage, -1 = disadvantage)

s1_civ = number of civilian casualties caused by the first strike option (10, 100, or 1000)

s2_civ = number of civilian casualties caused by the second strike option (10, 100, or 1000)

adv_civ = indicator of whether the first strike option has an advantage in civlian casualties
(1 = fewer casualites, 0 = no difference, -1 = more casualties)

s1_env = level of environmental damage caused by the first strike option (severe, moderate, or minimal)

s2_env = level of environmental damage caused by the second strike option (severe, moderate, or minimal)

adv_env = indicator of whether the first strike option has an advantage in enviromental damage
(1 = less damage, 0 = no difference, -1 = more damage)

choice = indicates which option respondent chose in the strike pair

strikeNum = tells you whether strike was listed as strike 1 or strike 2 in the conjoint

chosen = indicates whether the first strike was chosen in the strike pair

employ = indicates employment status of respondent

pol_interest = indicates how interested respondents say they are in politics

pol_discuss = measure of how often respondent says they discuss politics with others

pol_advice = measure of how often respondent says they give advice about political issues to others

foreign_defendAllies = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to protect its allies

foreign_enerySupply = how important the respondent thinks securing energy supplies is to US foreign policy

foreign_helpUN = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to help the UN

foreign_preventNuke = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to prevent nuclear proliferation

foreign_preventTerror = how important the respondent thinks it is for US to try to prevent terrorism from abroad

foreign_promoteDem = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to promote democracy abroad

foregin_promoteHR = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to promote human rights abroad

foreign_trade = how important the respondent thinks it is to promote free trade globally

foreign_defendAllies_N = numerical measure of foreign_defendAllies 
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_energySupply_N = numerical measure of foreign_energySupply
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_helpUN_N = numerical measure of foreign_helpUN
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_preventNuke_N = numerical measure of foreign_preventNuke
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_preventTerror_N = numerical measure of foreign_preventTerror
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_promoteDem_N = numerical measure of foreign_promoteDem
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_promoteHR_N = numerical measure of foreign_promoteHR
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_trade_N = numerical measure of foreign_trade
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

military_destroyTerrorist = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force by the US to destroy a terrorist camp

military_helpUN = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to help UN conduct a mission

military_oil = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to secure the flow of oil 

military_promoteDem = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to promote the spread of democracy

military_protectAllies = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to help protect US allies

military_stopGenocide = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to stop a genocide

military_destroyTerrorist_N = numerical measure of military_destroyTerrorist
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_helpUN_N = numerical measure of military_helpUN
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_oil_N = numerical measure of military_oil
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_promoteDem_N = numerical measure of military_promoteDem
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_protectAllies_N = numerical measure of military_protectAllies
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_stopGenocide_N = numerical measure of military_stopGenocide
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

age = respondent's age

education = respondent's level of education (put here for alignment with pilot conjoint)

ethnicity = respondent's race 

gender = respondent's gender

hhi = respondent's income bracket

hispanic = is respondent Hispanic

political_party = respondent's partisan affiliation

region = part of the US where respondent lives

educ = respondent's level of education 

race = respondent's race

weight = survey weights

mobile = whether respondent took survey on a phone or not

Randomization = indicates whether that strike pair had realistic, restricted randomization (Realistic) or unrestricted randomization (Conjoint)

disadv_index = the number of net disadvantages for the first strike (if negative, indicates that nuclear strike is net advantageous)

disadv_strike = 1 - nuke_adv; used in making AMCE estimates
(2 = nuclear (first strike) vs. conventional (second strike) , 1 = same type, 0 = conventional vs. nuclear)

types = indicates the type of strike in the pair (Nuclear vs. conventional, nuclear vs. nuclear, conventional vs. conventional, or conventional vs. nuclear)

mil_adv = describes the military characteristics of the first strike relative to the second strike

disadv_ally = indicates whether the first strike has a disadvantage in terms of allied approval 
(1 = disadvantage, 0 = no disadvantage, -1 = advantage)

disadv_civ = indicates whether the first strike has a disadvantage in terms of civlian casualties
(1 = disadvantage, 0 = no disadvantage, -1 = advantage)

disadv_env = indicates whether the first strike has a disadvantage in terms of environmental damage
(1 = disadvantage, 0 = no disadvantage, -1 = advantage)

disadv_nuke = counts a nuclear strike type as a disadvantage
(1 = first strike is nuclear, second strike is conventional , 0 = same type, -1 = first strike is conventional, second strike is nuclear)

s_num = whether the respondent saw the greater chance of success for a nuclear strike treatment in the survey vignette

d_num = whether the respondent saw the greater destructiveness for a nuclear strike treatment in the survey vignette


### Main Study Survey Data

id = respondent id

c = destructiveness of nuclear and conventional strike options in terms of civilian fatalities, environmental damage, international condemnation (same = same amount of explicit civilian fatalities, environmental destruction, international backlash, nuke = nuclear strike causes more civilian fatalities, environmental destruction, international backlash) 

e = effectiveness of nuclear option relative to conventional option (same = 90% each, nuke = nuclear option 90%, conventional option 70%)

Age = age

askCfirst = subjects were asked whether they preferred the nuclear option and whether they approved of the nuclear option, and which question was asked first was randomized. askCfirst is an indicator for whether they were asked about the preference/choice first (0 = no, 1 = yes). 

exper_approveNuke = subject level of approval of nuclear option 

exper_choice = subject preference between conventional and nuclear options 

exper_realistic = subject assessment of how realistic the scenario described in the vignette was

time_treatment = time (in seconds) spent on the page containing the experimental vignette

age2 = age squared

age3 = age cubed

exper_approveConv = subject approval of the conventional option

exper_choice01 = binary indicator of preference between nuclear and conventional options (0 = preferred conventional option, 1 = preferred nuclear option)

employ = subject employment status

pol_interest = subject level of interest in politics

pol_discuss = frequency with which subject reports discussing politics with friends, family, coworkers, etc. 

pol_advice = frequency with which subject reports that friends, family, coworkers, etc. ask subject for advice on politics

foreign_defendAllies = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to protect its allies

foreign_enerySupply = how important the respondent thinks securing energy supplies is to US foreign policy

foreign_helpUN = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to help the UN

foreign_preventNuke = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to prevent nuclear proliferation

foreign_preventTerror = how important the respondent thinks it is for US to try to prevent terrorism from abroad

foreign_promoteDem = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to promote democracy abroad

foregin_promoteHR = how important the respondent thinks it is for the US to promote human rights abroad

foreign_trade = how important the respondent thinks it is to promote free trade globally

foreign_defendAllies_N = numerical measure of foreign_defendAllies 
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_energySupply_N = numerical measure of foreign_energySupply
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_helpUN_N = numerical measure of foreign_helpUN
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_preventNuke_N = numerical measure of foreign_preventNuke
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_preventTerror_N = numerical measure of foreign_preventTerror
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_promoteDem_N = numerical measure of foreign_promoteDem
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_promoteHR_N = numerical measure of foreign_promoteHR
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

foreign_trade_N = numerical measure of foreign_trade
(0 = never, 0.333 = not too important, 0.67 = somewhat important, 1 = very important)

military_destroyTerrorist = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force by the US to destroy a terrorist camp

military_helpUN = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to help UN conduct a mission

military_oil = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to secure the flow of oil 

military_promoteDem = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to promote the spread of democracy

military_protectAllies = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to help protect US allies

military_stopGenocide = indicates whether respondent would support the use of force to stop a genocide

military_destroyTerrorist_N = numerical measure of military_destroyTerrorist
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_helpUN_N = numerical measure of military_helpUN
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_oil_N = numerical measure of military_oil
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_promoteDem_N = numerical measure of military_promoteDem
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_protectAllies_N = numerical measure of military_protectAllies
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

military_stopGenocide_N = numerical measure of military_stopGenocide
(1 = yes, 0 = no)

education = respondent's level of education (done to make this parallel to main study conjoint data after same variable to that dataset)

ethnicity = respondent's ethnicity 

gender = respondent's gender 

hhi = respondent's income bracket

hispanic = is respondent hispanic 

political_party = respondent's partisan affiliation

region = part of the US where respondent lives

educ = respondent's level of education 

race = respondent's race

weight = survey weights

mobile = binary indicator of whether subject used a mobile device to take survey (0 = no, 1 = yes)

s_num = value of the effectiveness treatment 
(0 = nuclear and conventional strike had an equal chance of success, 1 = nuclear strike had greater chance of success in destroying target)

d_num = value of collateral damage treatment
(0 = nuclear and conventional strike had equal collateral damage, 1 = nuclear strike had greater collateral damage)

Destruction = destructiveness of nuclear and conventional strike options in terms of civilian fatalities, environmental damage, international condemnation 

Effectiveness = relative effectiveness of nuclear and conventional strike options in terms of probability/chance of destroying the target


### Pilot Study Conjoint Data

id = respondent id

choiceNum = the number of the strike pair presented to them

followUp_1 = whether the first strike option had a chance for a follow-up strike

chance_1 = the chance of success for the first strike option (90% or 70%)

civCas_1 = the level of civilian casualties caused by the first strike option

env_1 = the level of environmental damage caused by the first strike option

type_1 = the strike type of the first option (Nuclear or Conventional)

milCas_1 = the level of US military casualties caused by the first strike option

chosen_1 = whether the first strike was chosen or not

followUp_2 = whether the second strike option had a chance for a follow-up strike

chance_2 = the chance of success for the second strike option (90% or 70%)

civCas_2 = the level of civilian casualties caused by the second strike option

env_2 = the level of environmental damage caused by the second strike option

type_2 = the strike type of the second option (Nuclear or Conventional)

milCas_2 = the level of military casualties caused by the second strike option

chosen_2 = whether the second strike option was chosen or not

age = respondent's age

gender = respondent's gender

ethnicity = respondent's race

education = respondent's level of education

political_party = respondent's partisan affiliation on left-right (1-10) scale

hhi = respondent's level of household income

hispanic = is respondent Hispanic

choseNuke = whether the respondent chose the nuclear strike option (if one was presented)

chance_adv = indication for the first strike option's relative advantage in terms of the chance of success
(1 = first strike better, 0 = same, -1 = second strike better)

civCas_adv = indication for the first strike option's relative advantage in civilian casualties
(1 = first strike causes fewer casualties, 0 = same, -1 = second strike causes fewer casualties)

milCas_adv = indication for the first strike option's relative advantage in military casualties
(1 = first strike causes fewer casualties, 0 = same, -1 = second strike causes fewer casualties)

followUp_adv = indication for the first strike option's relative advantage in terms of offering a chance for a follow-up strike
(1 = first strike allows one, second does not; 0 = same; -1 = second strike allows one, first does not)

env_adv = indication for the first strike option's relative advantage in terms of environmental damage caused
(1 = first strike causes less damage, 0 = same, -1 = second strike causes less damage)

nuke_adv = indicates whether strike was nuclear vs. conventional or both of the same type
(0 = same type; -1 = different types)

Chance of Success = the relative value for the chance variable for the first strike option

Civlian Casualties = the relative value for the civilian casualties variable for the first strike option

Military Casualties = the relative value for the military casualties variable for the first strike option

Follow Up = the relative value for the follow-up opportunity variable for the first strike option

Environmental Damage = the relative value for the level of environmental damage for the first strike option

Advantage = the net advantages carried by the first strike option (-4 to 4)

#Pilot Study Survey Data

rid = respondent id

id  = alternative respondent id 

z   = indicator of treatment assignment, where 0 indicates nuclear and conventional option are equally effect and 1 indicates that nuclear option was more effective

Z  = description of treatment assignment 

age = age

education = education

time_treatment = time (in seconds) subject spent on survey page containing experimental vignette

prefer_nuke_01 = binary indicator of whether subject preferred the nuclear option (0 = no, 1 = yes)

approve_nuke_01 = binary indicator of whether subject approved of the nuclear strike (0 = no, 1 = yes)

ethical_nuke_01 = binary indicator of whether subject though the nuclear strike was ethical (0 = no, 1 = yes)



